Showing posts with label US dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US dollar. Show all posts

Monday, 17 January 2011

The currency king is (almost) dead, long live who?

by Grant Morgan

On the eve of a trip to Washington, China's president Hu Jintao has openly spelt out the demise of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

Yet he also admits that it would be "a fairly long process" to make China's renminbi an international currency, not to mention replacing the weakening greenback as the unrivaled currency of global commerce.

In other words, the currency king is (almost) dead, long live who? (not Hu).

All this is an indicator of two system-changing trends. First, it points to a hegemonic vacuum in the world system as no one imperial power looks likely to gain the relative dominance that America enjoyed after the Second World War.

Second, it highlights the deathly financial instability of global capitalism as its high-stakes gamble on building ever higher mountains of debt looks certain to be a sure loser.

The important task facing the world's majority is to make sure that financial chaos and capitalist collapse doesn't take them down too.

That will require a grassroots revolution to separate the worthwhile world of work from the parasitical world of high finance where capitalist crooks and state swindlers luxuriate in a fool's paradise at the expense of people and planet.

This Financial Times article below gives more background on president Hu's comments: Hu questions future role of US dollar

Wednesday, 22 July 2009

Towards the integration of the Dollar and the Euro?

by Michel Chossudovsky from Global Research 20 July 2009 With a view to restoring financial stability, World leaders have called upon the Group of 20 countries (G-20) to instigate a new global currency based on the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The media has presented the global currency initiative as a consensus building process, in which BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would participate in the revamping of the international monetary system.

Tuesday, 23 June 2009

De-Dollarization: Dismantling America’s Financial-Military Empire

by Prof. Michael Hudson from Global Research 13 June 2009 The city of Yakaterinburg, Russia’s largest east of the Urals, may become known not only as the death place of the tsars but of American hegemony too – and not only where US U-2 pilot Gary Powers was shot down in 1960, but where the US-centered international financial order was brought to ground. Continue at http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13969

Thursday, 9 April 2009

Bernanke's Financial Rescue Plan: The growing prospect of a U.S. default

by Mike Whitney from Global Research, 6 April 2009 Fed chief Ben Bernanke has embarked on the most radical and ruinous financial rescue plan in history. According to Bloomberg News, the Fed has already lent or committed $12.8 trillion trying to stabilize the financial system after the the bursting of Wall Street's speculative mega-bubble. Now Bernanke wants to dig an even bigger hole, by creating programs that will provide up to $2 trillion of credit to financial institutions that purchase toxic assets from banks or securities backed by consumer loans. The Fed's generous terms are expected to generate a flurry of speculation which will help strengthen the banking system while leaving the taxpayer to bear the losses. It is impossible to know what the long-term effects of Bernanke's excessive spending will be, but his plan has the potential to trigger hyperinflation or spark a run on the dollar. Continue at http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13077 See also Can Obama's policies fix the economy?

Thursday, 5 March 2009

'We need shock and awe policies to halt depression'

by Peter de Waal The key thing I got from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's article We need shock and awe policies to halt depression is that industrial production has collapsed at a rate 2-10 times faster than in 1929-1932! The credit bubble was largely based on worldwide property prices being pushed up with financial tricks over a 30-year period. In my opinion Capital has two ways out of this: 1) Allow house prices to collapse to the value at which ordinary working people can afford to buy them again i.e. 1-4 times the average yearly wage. This would of course bankrupt many insurance companies, pension funds and banks, ruining the rich. This would happen if the governments of the world stopped promising to bail out failed banks. The banks would then have to "mark-to-market" their loan portfolios, rather than hanging on to the notion that the book value of 18 months ago can be realised. Because of the bail-outs US Banks have been refusing reasonable offers for properties and their loan books, and have actually increased their exposure to toxic credit derivative products safe in the knowledge that they are "too big to be allowed to fail." 2) Print money like crazy and hope inflation catches up with those still wildly-inflated house prices. Option (2) is very dangerous, as it would capsize US efforts to get the world to buy it's debt in order to finance the bail-out of it's destitute banking system. Why would you buy a T-Bond when the value of the US$ is plummeting? Printing money or allowing inflation to rip would deal quite effectively to the US debt problem. There is always option (3) War. World War II began as a trade war, became a shooting war and ended as a nuclear war. We need option (4) make the bosses pay and end capitalism.

Thursday, 1 January 2009

Towards the integration of the Dollar and the Euro?

by Michel Chossudovsky from Global Research 20 July 2009 With a view to restoring financial stability, World leaders have called upon the Group of 20 countries (G-20) to instigate a new global currency based on the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The media has presented the global currency initiative as a consensus building process, in which BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would participate in the revamping of the international monetary system. Russia and China have put forth "proposals" which have been highlighted as possible alternatives to the dollar. China has proposed the formation of a new global currency based on a reform of SDR system: "It is a feasible plan to reform the present SDR and make it into a real settlement currency, a universally accepted 'currency basket' that would replace the dollar at the heart of the monetary system," (Li Ruogu, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, Reuters, 6 July 2009) China's proposal does not imply a major shift in global banking arrangements, nor does it open up a window of debate regarding monetary reform. On the other hand, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has explicitly questioned the composition of the SDR basket and has called upon the IMF "to expand the currency basket of SDRs to include the Chinese yuan, commodity currencies and gold in order that it matures into a reserve currency." Geopolitics Global Geopolitics bears a relationship to the international monetary system. Control over money creation is an instrument of economic conquest. The invasion and occupation of Iraq was to exclude rival Russian and Chinese interests from the Middle-East and Central Asian oil fields. The reform of the international monetary system is a project of the dominant financial elites, which is discussed behind closed doors. It is unlikely that Russia and China, which in large part remain subordinate to Western banking interests, will perform a significant role in central banking functions at a global level. Moreover, this initiative occurs at a time of East West confrontation, amidst veiled US-NATO threats directed against Russia as well China. The establishment of a new global currency and central banking system is an instrument of global economic domination which is intimately related to the broader US-NATO military agenda. While the SDR basket composition could be modified or revised, it is unlikely that the Yuan and the Ruble would be allowed to perform a role as major reserve currencies. What is more likely to occur is the formation of a global proxy currency predicated largely on the Euro and the US dollar. In response to the Dollar-Euro hegemony, Russia, China and the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) may decide to develop bilateral trading arrangements in Rubles or Yuan (renminbi). Special Drawing Rights SDRs are a composite accounting unit used by the IMF and the World Bank in loan agreements with member countries. The SDR is a basket of essentially four major currencies: the US dollar, the Euro, the British pound and the Japanese Yen. The IMF has recently presented a plan for issuing debt denominated in SDRs rather than US dollars. The media has heralded this decision as a major innovation, when in fact the Bretton Woods institutions have, for many years, been issuing debt denominated in SDRs. "Today, the SDR has only limited use as a reserve asset, and its main function is to serve as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members." (IMF Fact Sheet on SDRs) What would happen if a new global currency were to be devised using the existing SDR framework? SDRs would no longer be an accounting unit but a unit of currency in a basket. Actual central banking functions, however, would not necessarily be transferred to the IMF, they would remain in the hands of four constituent central banks: The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank based in Frankfurt, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. I The IMF is a bureaucracy which serves the interests of major private financial institutions. While the IMF would formally be responsible for overseeing a global currency, the IMF would not actually be responsible for monetary policy. Under the existing SDR composition, the central banking functions would be divided between four central banks. These central banks are in turn controlled by a handful of private banking interests. A global currency based on the existing SDR arrangement would not fundamentally change the global monetary order. The SDR would be a proxy currency. Under the present composition of the SDR, what we would be dealing with is an alliance between US, British, European and Japanese banking institutions, ultimately with the US dollar and the Euro predominating. Euro-Dollar Rivalry From the outset in 1999, there has been a clash between the Euro and the dollar. In Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, the Balkans extending into Central Asia, the dollar and the Euro are competing with one another. Ultimately, control over national currency systems is the basis upon which countries are colonized. While the U.S. dollar prevails throughout the Western Hemisphere, the Euro and the U.S. dollar are clashing in the former Soviet Union, Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Prior to the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, there was a political confrontation between the Franco-German alliance and the dominant Anglo-American military axis. With the election of pro-US governments in both France and Germany, a political consensus seems to have emerged with regard to the Middle East war. In turn, this consensus regarding the US-NATO military agenda favors greater cooperation and integration between the US and the EU in global financial and monetary affairs. Would this potential "alliance" between powerful overlapping American, British, European and Japanese banking interests lead to the integration of the Euro and the dollar into a single global currency? This integration would lead to reinforcing the hegemonic control of a small number of global banking and financial institutions over the process of money creation. This, in turn, would overshadow the functions of national central banks, encroach on the sovereignty of the Nation State and eventually lead to a new phase of the global debt crisis.

Wednesday, 3 December 2008

Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by Summer 2009

by GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin) from Information Clearing House 1 December 2008 The G20-meeting held in Washington on November 14/15, 2008, is in its essence a historical indicator that the Western - above all Anglo-Saxon - monopoly on global economic and financial governance, is coming to an end. Nevertheless, according to LEAP/E2020, this meeting also clearly demonstrated that this kind of summits is doomed to inefficiency because they concentrate on curing the symptoms (banks’ and hedge funds’ financial difficulties, derivative markets’ explosion, financial and currency markets’ dramatic volatility) rather than the fundamental root of the current crisis, i.e. the collapse of the Bretton Woods system based on the US Dollar as sole pillar of the global monetary system. Without a complete overhaul of the system inherited from 1944 by summer 2009, the failing of the current system and that of the United States at the center, will lead the whole planet to an unprecedented economic, social, political and strategic instability, and more specifically to a breakdown of the global monetary system by summer 2009. In light of the technocratic jargon and calendar of the declaration released after this first G20-meeting (totally disconnected from the speed and scope of the unfolding crisis (1)), it is more than likely that the disaster will have to happen for the fundamental problems to be seriously addressed and for the beginning of a reply to be initiated.
See also

Friday, 1 February 2008

Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by Summer 2009

by GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin) from Information Clearing House 1 December 2008 The G20-meeting held in Washington on November 14/15, 2008, is in its essence a historical indicator that the Western - above all Anglo-Saxon - monopoly on global economic and financial governance, is coming to an end. Nevertheless, according to LEAP/E2020, this meeting also clearly demonstrated that this kind of summits is doomed to inefficiency because they concentrate on curing the symptoms (banks’ and hedge funds’ financial difficulties, derivative markets’ explosion, financial and currency markets’ dramatic volatility) rather than the fundamental root of the current crisis, i.e. the collapse of the Bretton Woods system based on the US Dollar as sole pillar of the global monetary system. Without a complete overhaul of the system inherited from 1944 by summer 2009, the failing of the current system and that of the United States at the center, will lead the whole planet to an unprecedented economic, social, political and strategic instability, and more specifically to a breakdown of the global monetary system by summer 2009. In light of the technocratic jargon and calendar of the declaration released after this first G20-meeting (totally disconnected from the speed and scope of the unfolding crisis (1)), it is more than likely that the disaster will have to happen for the fundamental problems to be seriously addressed and for the beginning of a reply to be initiated. Four key-factors are now pushing the Bretton Woods II (2) system to collapse in the course of the year 2009: • Fast weakening of the central players: USA, UK • Three visions of the future of global governance will be dividing world’s largest players (United-States, Eurozone, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil) by spring 2009 • Unbridled speeding-up of the last decade’s (de-)stabilizing processes • Increasing number of more and more violent backlashes. The agitation that has seized global leaders since the end of September 2008 indicates that panic has struck at the highest level. Worldwide political leaders have now understood that the house is on fire. But they have not yet perceived something obvious: that the very structure of the building is involved. Improving fire-regulations or reorganizing emergency services will not be sufficient. To use a strong symbolic image, the World Trade Center’s twin towers did not collapse because firemen were late or because water was missing in the automatic fire-system, they collapsed because their structure was not meant to support the shock of two airliners hitting them in just a few minutes. Today’s global monetary system is in a similar situation: the twin-towers are the Bretton Woods system, and the airliners are called “subprime crisis”, “banking failures”, “economic recession”, “Very Great US Depression”, “US deficits”, a whole squadron. Today’s leaders, who all belong to the collapsing world (including Barak Obama (3)), cannot possibly imagine how to solve the problem, just like central bankers in 2006/2007 could not possibly imagine the scope the unfolding crisis could reach (4). It is their world which is disappearing under their eyes, their beliefs and their illusions (sometimes similar) (5). According to our team, a 20 percent renewal of worldwide leaders is required to begin to see sustainable solutions (6) appear. This is indeed, according to LEAP/E2020, the « critical mass » needed to permit any fundamental change of perspective in a complex not very hierarchical human group. Today we are still far from reaching this critical mass: in order to contribute to finding solutions to the crisis, those new leaders must accede power in full awareness of the crisis’ specific nature. According to LEAP/E2020, if global leaders fail to realize that in the next three months and to take actions in the next six months, as explained in GEAB N°28, the US debt will “implode” by summer 2009 under the shape of the country’s defaulting or the Dollar’s dramatic devaluation. This implosion will follow closely a number of similar episodes affecting less central countries (see GEAB N°28), including the United Kingdom whose already huge debt is ballooning at the same pace as Washington’s (7). In the same way as the US Federal Reserve saw, month after month, its Primary Dealers (8) being swept away by the crisis before it was itself confronted to a real problem of capitalization and therefore survival, the United States in the coming year will witness the implosion of all countries too-closely integrated to their economy and finance, and of their allies financially too-dependent on them (9). The role the Europeans can play in the matter is essential (10). The Eurozone in particular must send out a strong message towards Washington: “The United States will fall into an economic and financial pitfall in 2009 if they cling to their past privileges. Once the world has given up on the Dollar, it will be too late to negotiate”. With more than 550-billion USD, the Eurozone owns the third largest reserve (ex-aequo with Russia who is not very accurate on that aspect) after China and Japan, and before the Gulf oil-monarchies (see table above). It therefore has the diplomatic weight, the financial weight, the economic weight, the commercial weight and the monetary weight required to compel Washington to face realities (11). The EU altogether will follow because non-Euro EU countries are all on the verge of a severe crisis of their currency or economy or both (12). Without the Euroland, their outlook is very gloomy in the short and medium term. As a matter of fact, the Euro is the only currency a growing number of initially reluctant (Iceland, Denmark) or skeptical (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary) countries now wish to join (13). Sign of the times, the Financial Times has started to list the US federal state’s tangible assets: military bases, national parks, public buildings, museums, etc… everything has been evaluated for a total amount of approximately 1,500-billion USD, i.e. more or less the probable amount of the budget deficit in 2009 (see the detail of these assets in the chart below). No wonder why Taiwan, despite its dependence on the security provided by Washington, decided to stop buying one of the three great components of the US public deficit, the Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac securities (despite the fact that they were “rescued” by the government (14)); or why Japan is now a net-seller of US T-Bonds. All those who, despite our advice in the past two years, invested in Fannie and Freddy securities or in stock markets or in large US private equity banks or in the banking sector in general, have no reason to worry: it will not happen because "they" will prevent it! A problem remains however: “they” are now panic stricken and “they” understand nothing to this situation “they” were never prepared to face. Like we explained in the GEAB N°28, 2008 was only the detonator of the global systemic crisis. Now comes Phase IV, phase of the aftermath! Notes: (1) Here is the final communique released and a first non-committal analysis from the French press (Journal du Dimanche, close to the Paris government) which gives an idea of the opinion of the media throughout the Eurozone. Obviously the G20-Summit did not manage to calm down the crisis, it could even result in enhanced worry, seen the US refusal to agree on addressing the real problems. (2) Whatever may think Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as some rather unprofessional media, Bretton Woods II dates back to the 1970s. In 1971 indeed, the US unilateral decision to give up the Dollar/Gold peg, soon followed by the Jamaica agreement in 1976, put an end to the initial Bretton Woods framework and marked the beginning of a system of floating exchange rates (Bretton Woods II). (3) The future president of the United States seems to have for sole aim the implementation of his campaign program (social security, infrastructure, middle-class tax reduction), listed before the crisis, and requiring major expenses, when the US federal state is already over-indebted. It was a perfect program… for an America that no longer exists except in electoral speeches. (4) On this subject, read our anticipations in GEAB N°17 and N°18. (5) This goes for the USD-reserves of many countries such as China, Japan and the Gulf oil-monarchies. Today’s leaders are not able to imagine that the hundreds of billions of USD piled up in their reserves are only worth 50 or 30 percent of their face value. It will belong to their successors to make rational conclusions and invent a different global system. (6) That is to say conceptually relevant and efficiently implemented. (7) As a matter of fact, because of its strong recession, the United Kingdom is already accounting for a large part of the EU’s slowdown in 2009. Great-Britain will be the “sickman” of the EU in the years to come. (8) It is informative to read on Wikipedia the history of Primary Dealers, those banks chosen by the US Federal Reserve as privileged partners and sole ones allowed to deal with the Fed. Indeed after a few decade-long period of stability, the list has suddenly begun to shrink as “primary dealers” began to be swept away by the crisis in 2008. (9) Talking about dependent allies, Pakistan and Ukraine are already under IMF perfusion, and Turkey’s credit rating is about to be downgraded. Egypt, Israel and Colombia should soon join the list. (10) Joseph Stiglitz also underlines this point in his article dated 11/11/2008 in the Telegraph (11) Our team is far from believing that the Eurozone is not confronted to severe difficulties as well (on the economic outlook, see GEAB N°28 in particular), but in a historic crisis such as the one currently unfolding, these problems are minor compared to those the US, the UK or even Asia will face in the next year. (12) For instance Latvia has just nationalized as a matter of urgency the country’s second largest bank, Hungary is under ECB and IMF perfusion, Polish growth is collapsing, Denmark and Sweden will join the Eurozone in the couple of years, UK is in distress... (13) Source: NRC, 11/13/2008. Unlike the US, currency faced to a general move on the part of countries willing to “un-peg” from the Dollar, or even create alternative currencies such as the Gulf’s oil-monarchies and their project of common currency by 2010. Source: GulfNews, 09/22/2008 (14) Fanny Mae’s announcement of a new record-high loss in the third quarter (29-billion USD) might provide an explanation. Sources : Barron’s, 10/24/2008; MarketWatch, 11/10/2008