Towards the integration of the Dollar and the Euro?

by Michel Chossudovsky from Global Research 20 July 2009 With a view to restoring financial stability, World leaders have called upon the Group of 20 countries (G-20) to instigate a new global currency based on the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The media has presented the global currency initiative as a consensus building process, in which BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would participate in the revamping of the international monetary system.

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Towards the integration of the Dollar and the Euro?

by Michel Chossudovsky from Global Research 20 July 2009 With a view to restoring financial stability, World leaders have called upon the Group of 20 countries (G-20) to instigate a new global currency based on the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The media has presented the global currency initiative as a consensus building process, in which BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would participate in the revamping of the international monetary system. Russia and China have put forth "proposals" which have been highlighted as possible alternatives to the dollar. China has proposed the formation of a new global currency based on a reform of SDR system: "It is a feasible plan to reform the present SDR and make it into a real settlement currency, a universally accepted 'currency basket' that would replace the dollar at the heart of the monetary system," (Li Ruogu, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, Reuters, 6 July 2009) China's proposal does not imply a major shift in global banking arrangements, nor does it open up a window of debate regarding monetary reform. On the other hand, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has explicitly questioned the composition of the SDR basket and has called upon the IMF "to expand the currency basket of SDRs to include the Chinese yuan, commodity currencies and gold in order that it matures into a reserve currency." Geopolitics Global Geopolitics bears a relationship to the international monetary system. Control over money creation is an instrument of economic conquest. The invasion and occupation of Iraq was to exclude rival Russian and Chinese interests from the Middle-East and Central Asian oil fields. The reform of the international monetary system is a project of the dominant financial elites, which is discussed behind closed doors. It is unlikely that Russia and China, which in large part remain subordinate to Western banking interests, will perform a significant role in central banking functions at a global level. Moreover, this initiative occurs at a time of East West confrontation, amidst veiled US-NATO threats directed against Russia as well China. The establishment of a new global currency and central banking system is an instrument of global economic domination which is intimately related to the broader US-NATO military agenda. While the SDR basket composition could be modified or revised, it is unlikely that the Yuan and the Ruble would be allowed to perform a role as major reserve currencies. What is more likely to occur is the formation of a global proxy currency predicated largely on the Euro and the US dollar. In response to the Dollar-Euro hegemony, Russia, China and the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) may decide to develop bilateral trading arrangements in Rubles or Yuan (renminbi). Special Drawing Rights SDRs are a composite accounting unit used by the IMF and the World Bank in loan agreements with member countries. The SDR is a basket of essentially four major currencies: the US dollar, the Euro, the British pound and the Japanese Yen. The IMF has recently presented a plan for issuing debt denominated in SDRs rather than US dollars. The media has heralded this decision as a major innovation, when in fact the Bretton Woods institutions have, for many years, been issuing debt denominated in SDRs. "Today, the SDR has only limited use as a reserve asset, and its main function is to serve as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members." (IMF Fact Sheet on SDRs) What would happen if a new global currency were to be devised using the existing SDR framework? SDRs would no longer be an accounting unit but a unit of currency in a basket. Actual central banking functions, however, would not necessarily be transferred to the IMF, they would remain in the hands of four constituent central banks: The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank based in Frankfurt, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. I The IMF is a bureaucracy which serves the interests of major private financial institutions. While the IMF would formally be responsible for overseeing a global currency, the IMF would not actually be responsible for monetary policy. Under the existing SDR composition, the central banking functions would be divided between four central banks. These central banks are in turn controlled by a handful of private banking interests. A global currency based on the existing SDR arrangement would not fundamentally change the global monetary order. The SDR would be a proxy currency. Under the present composition of the SDR, what we would be dealing with is an alliance between US, British, European and Japanese banking institutions, ultimately with the US dollar and the Euro predominating. Euro-Dollar Rivalry From the outset in 1999, there has been a clash between the Euro and the dollar. In Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, the Balkans extending into Central Asia, the dollar and the Euro are competing with one another. Ultimately, control over national currency systems is the basis upon which countries are colonized. While the U.S. dollar prevails throughout the Western Hemisphere, the Euro and the U.S. dollar are clashing in the former Soviet Union, Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Prior to the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, there was a political confrontation between the Franco-German alliance and the dominant Anglo-American military axis. With the election of pro-US governments in both France and Germany, a political consensus seems to have emerged with regard to the Middle East war. In turn, this consensus regarding the US-NATO military agenda favors greater cooperation and integration between the US and the EU in global financial and monetary affairs. Would this potential "alliance" between powerful overlapping American, British, European and Japanese banking interests lead to the integration of the Euro and the dollar into a single global currency? This integration would lead to reinforcing the hegemonic control of a small number of global banking and financial institutions over the process of money creation. This, in turn, would overshadow the functions of national central banks, encroach on the sovereignty of the Nation State and eventually lead to a new phase of the global debt crisis.

Deflation virus is moving the policy test beyond the 1930s extremes

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph 9 December 2008 We are beyond the extremes of the 1930s. The frontiers of monetary policy are being pushed to limits that may now test viability of paper currencies and modern central banking.You cannot drop below zero. So what next if the credit markets refuse to thaw? Yes, Japan visited and survived this policy Hell during its lost decade, but that was a local affair in an otherwise booming global economy. It tells us nothing.

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Deflation virus is moving the policy test beyond the 1930s extremes

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph 9 December 2008 We are beyond the extremes of the 1930s. The frontiers of monetary policy are being pushed to limits that may now test viability of paper currencies and modern central banking. You cannot drop below zero. So what next if the credit markets refuse to thaw? Yes, Japan visited and survived this policy Hell during its lost decade, but that was a local affair in an otherwise booming global economy. It tells us nothing. This time we are all going down together. There is no deus ex machina to lift us out. Certainly not China, which is the most vulnerable of all. As the risk grows, officials at the highest level of the British Government have begun to circulate a six-year-old speech by Ben Bernanke - at the time of its writing, a garrulous kid governor at the US Federal Reserve. Entitled Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn't Happen Here, it is the manual of guerrilla tactics for defeating slumps by monetary means. "The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost," he said. Critics had great fun with this when Bernanke later became Fed chief. But the speech is best seen as a thought experiment by a Princeton professor thinking aloud during the deflation mini-scare of 2002. His point was that central banks never run out of ammunition. They have an inexhaustible arsenal. The world's fate now hangs on whether he was right (which is probable), or wrong (which is possible). As a scholar of the Great Depression, Bernanke does not think that sliding prices can safely be allowed to run their course. "Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy," he said. Once the killer virus becomes lodged in the system, it leads to a self-reinforcing debt trap - the real burden of mortgages rises, year after year, house prices falling, year after year. The noose tightens until you choke. Subtly, it shifts wealth from workers to bondholders. It is reactionary poison. Ultimately, it leads to civic revolt. Democracies do not tolerate such social upheaval for long. They change the rules. Bernanke's central claim is that the big guns of monetary policy were never properly deployed during the Depression, or during the early years of Japan's bust, so no wonder the slumps dragged on. The Fed can create money out of thin air and mop up assets on the open market, like a sovereign sugar daddy. "Sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation." Bernanke said the Fed can "expand the menu of assets that it buys". US Treasury bonds top the list, but it can equally purchase mortgage securities from US agencies such as Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie, or company bonds, or commercial paper. Any asset will do. The Fed can acquire houses, stocks, or a herd of Texas Longhorn cattle if it wants. It can even scatter $100 bills from helicopters. (Actually, Japan is about to do this with shopping coupons). All the Fed needs is emergency powers under Article 13 (3) of its code. This "unusual and exigent circumstances" clause was indeed invoked - very quietly - in March to save the US investment bank Bear Stearns. There has been no looking back since. Last week the Fed began printing money to buy mortgage debt directly. The aim is to drive down the long-term interest rates used for most US home loans. The Bernanke speech is being put into practice, almost to the letter. No doubt, such reflation a l'outrance can "work", but what is the exit strategy? The policy leaves behind a liquidity lake. The risk is that this will flood the system once the credit pipes are unblocked. The economy could flip abruptly from deflation to hyper-inflation. Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell warned last week that America faces disaster unless the Bernanke policy is reversed immediately. This is a minority view, but one held by a disturbingly large number of theorists. History will judge. Most central bankers suffer from a déformation professionnelle. Those shaped by the 1970s are haunted by ghosts of libertine excess. Those like Bernanke who were shaped by the 1930s live with their Depression poltergeists. His original claim to fame was work on the "credit channel" causes of slumps. Bank failures can snowball out of control as the "financial accelerator" kicks in. The cardinal error of the 1930s was to let lending contract. This is why he went nuclear in January, ramming through the most dramatic rates cuts in Fed history. Events have borne him out. A case can be made that Bernanke's pre-emptive blitz has greatly reduced the likelihood of a catastrophe. It was no mean feat given that he had to face down a simmering revolt earlier this year from the Fed's regional banks. The sooner the Bank of England tears up its rule books and prepares to follow the script in Bernanke's manual, the more chance we too have of avoiding a crash landing. Monetary stimulus is a better option than fiscal sprees that leave us saddled with public debt - the path that nearly wrecked Japan. Yes, I backed the Brown stimulus package - with a clothes-peg over my nose - but only as a one-off emergency. Public spending should be a last resort, as Keynes always argued. Of course, Bernanke should not be let off the hook too lightly. Let us not forget that he was deeply complicit in creating the disaster we now face. He was cheerleader of Alan Greenspan's easy-money stupidities from 2003-2006. He egged on debt debauchery. It was he who provided the theoretical underpinnings of the Greenspan doctrine that one could safely ignore housing and stock bubbles because the Fed could simply "clean up afterwards". Not so simply, it turns out. As Bernanke said in his 2002 speech: "the best way to get out of trouble is not to get into it in the first place". Too late now.